What’s the story?
- U.S. cotton prices in 2026 will be driven by tariffs and China relations – even though the 2025 crop is better than had been expected
- The Supima crop expected to yield around 400,000 bales this year, down 11%
- China cuts U.S. cotton imports, while Brazil gains global market share
- Polyester blends expected to rise due to tariff-driven cost pressures
New York – For American cotton – including premium Supima and the home textiles companies that use it – it will be political rather than agricultural factors that define supply levels and prices in 2026.
So says Marc Lewkowitz, president and CEO of Supima, the marketing organization that promotes the premium cotton product. In a wide-ranging webinar interview with Home Textiles Today on the eve of the New York Home Fashions Market, Lewkowitz said the current tariff turmoil combined with political factors impacting U.S. relations with China will cause the use of cotton in bed and bath products to perhaps be diminished. This comes even as prices for the raw material are expected to remain low given global supplies.
The 2025 cotton crop, he said, is now projected to be a little better than originally forecast, including for Supima, although it remains on the lower end of the historical spectrum. This is due to better weather conditions that are expected to result in higher yields once the harvest begins, starting in late October and running through the end of the year.
“The good news is that for whatever reason,” Lewkowitz said, “based on the climate and agronomic indicators from the plants and the performance of the plants so far, some of the yields tend to be looking a little bit better, which is a blessing for a lot of the growers, as well as help with the low prices. We’re looking maybe at a crop this year of around 400,000 bales versus a crop last year of around 450,000 bales.”
He said based on the information he is hearing, the harvest for conventional upland cotton – the overwhelming portion of the cotton crop and what’s used in the vast majority of home textiles products containing cotton – is also expected to be above original forecasts.
“But, you know, what will happen really has a lot to do with external factors well outside the production side of the equation,” Lewkowitz said.
China has significantly cut back on the amount of American cotton it is importing as the trade battle between the two countries continues. China is also believed to be stockpiling a large amount of cotton from previous years, both domestic and imported.
In the meantime, drastic 50% tariffs on Indian goods coming into the U.S. are also impacting that country’s imports. Vietnam, with a 20% tariff rate, is expected to pick up some of the slack but it remains a relatively small player on the finished product side of the home business.
Also impacting supplies are the increased levels of cotton coming out of Brazil. It has now supplanted the U.S. as the third largest cotton grower in the world, behind China and India. Lewkowitz said Brazil is taking advantage of global politics to gain market share in the worldwide cotton market.
All of this is likely to impact the kinds of products vendors are showing next week in New York.
“So, I think right now, you have a lot of scrambling of probably manufacturers trying to just double down on some basics, so just trying to fill the void with lower-cost goods in a product mix that tries to address the tariff complications relative to goods coming back into the U.S.,” said Lewkowitz.
He is expecting to see more cotton-polyester blends as vendors work to get around tariff issues. “Mills are going to try to be as creative as possible. You might see more blends, especially with polyester as a lower-priced fiber in commodity mixes.
“That’s never a good cotton conversation, because we love to see cotton be predominant and prevail just from a comfort level.”
One way he sees brands helping to tell the Supima story is through a focus on sustainability and traceability, programs the organization has developed and promoted over the past few years.
“It’s about trying to do the right thing. A lot of the mills are trying to see how they can have a responsible framework around regenerative cotton, because even with higher prices, they see that as a value-added tool that they can present to the potential retail brand buyers.
“So that’s certainly one of the opportunities, I think, that’s out there. The other one that we really see as a massive driver is traceability, transparency and authentication.”
So, is Lewkowitz an optimist or a pessimist when it comes to current market conditions?
“I don’t know if optimistic or pessimistic is a good term either way. The market’s challenging but I think a lot more of the conversation is going to resolve and revolve around more responsible, pragmatic conversations relative to supply chain sourcing, relative to how we present our product in the marketplace, and I think there’s maybe just going to be a little bit more strategy involved in those placements of product, and why the product’s there, what it’s intended to do and what the market is trying to serve.
“Everybody’s going to find a place for their product, everybody’s going to find the product one way or another, they’re going to get something. Retailers need something to sell, so they’re definitely going to find something to put on the shelf.”
And that’s the very definition of New York market week.
Tags: cotton prices, 2025 cotton crop, Trump tariffs, Supima cotton cotton demand, Brazil cotton
