For a long time, Pauline Hanson and her One Nation party seemed to have little influence in Victoria, but that narrative is beginning to shift.
Let’s dive into the two key aspects of Hanson and her political movement that stand out. First, it’s impressive that this often-controversial political group has persisted for nearly three decades, adapting over time yet remaining relevant. Second, despite its longevity, Victoria has historically been resistant to the party’s message rooted in grievances.
There has always been a certain level of pride among Victorians about this apparent immunity, as if the inability of One Nation to gain traction south of the Barassi Line signals a superior political awareness. Just like the unpopularity of radio personalities Kyle and Jackie O in Melbourne is cited as evidence of the city’s refined tastes, many Victorians like to believe they have long seen through Hanson’s rhetoric.
Take the 1998 federal election as an example: while Hanson’s fledgling party captured 8.4% of the national vote, it only managed a mere 3.7% in Victoria. Fast forward to last year’s federal election, and One Nation’s Senate vote in Victoria was just 4.4%, marking the lowest support of any state or territory where the party fielded candidates.
It wasn't until 2018 that One Nation officially registered as a political entity with the Victorian Electoral Commission, and just last year did it participate in its first state election. Even after Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, a dairy farmer from Invergordon, won the party's inaugural seat in the Victorian parliament, many dismissed it as a mere fluke rather than a signal of a larger trend.
As we enter this election year, it's crucial to abandon any complacency. The Labor government, which is facing unpopularity while attempting to secure a historic fourth consecutive term, should not take anything for granted. Likewise, the Coalition is well aware that when One Nation gains ground, it’s their own Liberal and National MPs who bear the brunt of the backlash.
For the first time, One Nation is establishing a foothold in Victoria. They are actively recruiting members, launching local branches, vetting candidates, and planning to contest every seat in the upcoming November election. Warren Pickering, the state president and former Senate candidate, mentions that a Victorian policy platform is on the horizon, emphasizing issues like crime, energy, promoting Australian values in education, and dismantling the state’s historical treaty with Indigenous Peoples.
"We recognize there’s a unique opportunity here, with more interest in One Nation than there’s been in the past," says Pickering. "We might very well secure the balance of power in the upper house."
Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist who now serves as a political researcher and consultant at Redbridge, agrees with Pickering. According to a recent national poll by Redbridge/Accent Research, published by The Australian Financial Review, One Nation's support has surged, surpassing the combined votes for the Liberals and Nationals at 26%.
Interestingly, among Generation X—the demographic typically seen as stable and reliable—One Nation has become the most favored political party. Although much of this support is concentrated in Hanson’s home state of Queensland and regional New South Wales, Samaras believes that the forthcoming Victorian state election offers One Nation its best chance this year, rather than the upcoming poll in South Australia.
In the lower house, several of Labor's most vulnerable seats—such as Bass, Pakenham, Hastings, Ripon, and Yan Yean—are located in regions where One Nation’s messaging may strongly resonate. Furthermore, suburban districts like Melton, Berwick, and Frankston could prove particularly advantageous for the party. Both Pickering and Samaras foresee One Nation potentially securing enough upper house seats to either hold or share the balance of power with the Greens.
Should this occur, the next government in Victoria might find itself relying on an anti-immigration party to advance its legislative agenda. Additionally, One Nation would gain access to significant public funding via the VEC’s Administrative Expenditure Funding scheme, allowing them to establish a headquarters, hire staff, and strengthen their political presence. If they were to snag six upper house seats, annual payments exceeding $500,000 would be within reach.
A lot hinges on what the Allan government decides regarding its long-discussed reforms to upper house voting. The dominant Left faction of Labor is advocating for the elimination of above-the-line voting (also known as group ticket voting) in the Legislative Council. This system can enable candidates with minimal vote shares to get elected through preference flows. A recent recommendation from the parliament’s electoral matters committee suggests abolishing this practice, and a reform bill from the Greens is already on the table.
If group ticket voting is discarded, it could lead to an increase in Green MPs, a decline in Nationals representation, and ultimately diminish the role of micro-parties in Victorian politics. As MP Jeff Bourman from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party observes, this would result in a legislative body with reduced political diversity and fewer unique perspectives.
However, such a change could dramatically enhance One Nation's electoral prospects in Victoria. Political consultant Glenn Druery, who has an in-depth understanding of the nuances of group ticket voting, believes that this system currently serves as a barrier to One Nation's ambitions. "What happens if GTV goes away?" he questions. "It would be a windfall for One Nation."
As the political landscape evolves, it’s clear that the traditional narrative surrounding One Nation in Victoria is shifting. What does this mean for the future of Victorian politics? Are we witnessing the rise of a new political force? We’d love to hear your thoughts on this evolving situation!
