The stage is officially set: one of college football’s fiercest rivalries is now a top‑15 showdown with real playoff stakes on the line. And this isn’t just another chapter in the Ohio State–Michigan story—it’s a chance to snap a years‑long drought and reshape the entire postseason picture.
Ohio State has not defeated Michigan since 2019, so Ryan Day’s team walks into Ann Arbor knowing that ending that skid means beating a Wolverines squad now sitting at No. 15 in the latest College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. That ranking bump for Michigan came after Georgia Tech and USC both slipped up with losses to Pitt and Oregon, opening the door for the Wolverines to climb into the top 15. For Ohio State fans, that means this matchup is more than just about bragging rights; it’s also a résumé game against a ranked rival.
The latest CFP rankings
The committee has Ohio State back in the CFP top tier yet again, marking the fourth straight week the Buckeyes have appeared in the rankings. This week, they hold the No. 1 spot and are slotted ahead of fellow heavyweights Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Texas Tech in the top five. Just behind that group sit Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, and Miami, rounding out a loaded top 12 that shows how crowded the race is.
Here’s how the Week 13 CFP rankings shake out:
- Ohio State (11–0) – Big Ten
- Indiana (11–0) – Big Ten
- Texas A&M (11–0) – SEC
- Georgia (10–1) – SEC
- Texas Tech (10–1) – Big 12
- Oregon (10–1) – Big Ten
- Ole Miss (10–1) – SEC
- Oklahoma (9–2) – SEC
- Notre Dame (9–2) – FBS Independent
- Alabama (9–2) – SEC
- BYU (10–1) – Big 12
- Miami (FL) (9–2) – ACC
- Utah (9–2) – Big 12
- Vanderbilt (9–2) – SEC
- Michigan (9–2) – Big Ten
- Texas (8–3) – SEC
- USC (8–3) – Big Ten
- Virginia (9–2) – ACC
- Tennessee (8–3) – SEC
- Arizona State (8–3) – Big 12
- SMU (8–3) – ACC
- Pittsburgh (8–3) – ACC
- Georgia Tech (9–2) – ACC
- Tulane (9–2) – American Athletic
- Arizona (8–3) – Big 12
There’s plenty here for debate: some fans will argue certain two‑loss teams are over‑ or underrated, especially when looking at schedule strength and conference depth. Do you think any of these rankings feel more reputation‑based than performance‑based?
If the playoff started today
If the CFP field were locked in as of this ranking release, Ohio State would open the playoff by facing either Oklahoma (the Sooners) or Notre Dame (the Fighting Irish) in a quarterfinal matchup. That kind of pairing would immediately test the Buckeyes against a blue‑blood opponent with its own playoff pedigree. But here’s where it gets controversial: with so many one‑loss and two‑loss teams hovering around the top 10–15 range, one chaotic weekend could completely reshuffle who actually makes that bracket.
ESPN’s bracket projections heading into Rivalry Week are already teasing that uncertainty, essentially asking which of these currently featured teams might tumble out of the field before Selection Sunday. Upsets, late‑season injuries, and conference title game results have a history of blowing up November assumptions. And this is the part most people miss: even teams currently outside the top 10 can sneak into serious contention if the right dominoes fall.
Ohio State’s unbeaten run
Ohio State enters Rivalry Week at a perfect 11–0 after 13 weeks of play, a run that has been built on both narrow escapes and dominant wins. The Buckeyes opened the season with a gritty 14–7 victory over then‑No. 16 Texas, setting the tone with a defensive statement in a top‑25 clash. From there, they stacked wins against Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers, with the Senior Day finale turning into a 42–9 rout over the Scarlet Knights.
That schedule shows a mix of traditional Big Ten battles and notable nonconference matchups, which helps explain why Ohio State sits at or near the top of virtually every major metric. Some critics might question whether a few of those opponents were truly elite, but it’s hard to nitpick an undefeated record when the team has repeatedly handled business by wide margins.
Polls, analytics, and strength of record
It’s not just the CFP committee that’s high on the Buckeyes. Ohio State is also ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll, reflecting broad support from both media and coaches nationwide. Advanced metrics back that up: Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings place the Buckeyes at the top, and ESPN’s College Football Power Index also lists them as the nation’s No. 1 team.
When it comes to strength of record—a measure of how impressive a team’s résumé is relative to an average top‑25 team—ESPN currently has Ohio State at No. 3, trailing only Texas A&M and Indiana. That means, on paper, the Buckeyes have performed extremely well against the schedule they’ve been given, but perhaps not quite as impressively as those two other unbeaten programs. This is where debates get heated: should undefeated status alone guarantee the top spot, or should strength of record and underlying metrics matter more?
What’s at stake against Michigan?
If Ohio State can beat Michigan on Saturday, the Buckeyes will punch their ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time since 2020. That alone is a significant milestone, considering recent heartbreaks and the rivalry losing streak hanging over the program. The likely opponent in Indianapolis would be Indiana, unless Purdue manages to spring an upset and derail the Hoosiers’ run.
Oddsmakers certainly do not expect that upset; Indiana enters the weekend as a massive 28.5‑point favorite over Purdue, signaling that most expect an Ohio State–Indiana title clash if both teams take care of business. But here’s where it gets interesting: if Michigan stuns Ohio State again, the entire Big Ten and CFP landscape changes overnight. Would an 11–1 Buckeyes team with this profile still deserve a playoff spot over some conference champions with worse losses—or would another defeat to Michigan be enough to knock them out of serious contention?
So what do you think? Are the Buckeyes clearly the best team in the country right now, or are Indiana, Texas A&M, or another contender being undervalued by the rankings and analytics? And more provocatively: if Ohio State loses a close one to Michigan but finishes 11–1, should the committee still find a way to keep them in the playoff field—yes or no, and why?
