Imagine the Chicago Cubs at a crossroads, deciding whether to secure their talented lefty pitcher Shota Imanaga for the long term or risk letting him explore other opportunities – a choice that could define the team's success in the coming seasons. But here's where it gets intriguing: this isn't just about dollars and cents; it's about weighing a player's proven track record against the uncertainties of baseball's ever-shifting talent pool.
Shota Imanaga earned the spotlight as the Cubs' Opening Day starter during the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers, kicking off the season in Japan. This honor stemmed partly from the cultural significance for his home country, but it also celebrated his outstanding debut year with the team.
As the campaign wrapped up, Imanaga grappled with challenges, particularly allowing more home runs than before. Cubs manager Craig Counsell carefully managed his postseason appearances amidst these struggles. Now, the Cubs face a nuanced decision about exercising options in Imanaga's contract, adding a layer of complexity to their offseason planning.
Reflecting on his signing, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer shared post-playoffs, 'If someone had predicted Shota's performance over the past two years before we inked the deal, we'd have jumped at it eagerly. Not only has he delivered on the field, but he's also been an exemplary teammate and a valuable addition to our club. That said, we still have important choices ahead and plenty of conversations to navigate.'
Let's dive deeper into the situation at hand:
- Breaking down Imanaga's contract details
Imanaga's initial agreement was a four-year pact guaranteeing $53 million, with various paths unfolding from this offseason. Currently, the Cubs have the option to activate a three-year extension covering 2026 through 2028, or decline it while potentially retaining him for at least another year.
Drawing from reports at the time of the deal and details shared by multiple sources:
- If the Cubs activate the three-year club option: This would lock in $57.75 million over that span. His fifth-place finish in the 2024 National League Cy Young voting boosted his salary by $250,000 annually for the remaining contract term. He'd earn $20.25 million in both 2026 and 2027, dropping to $17.25 million in 2028, after which he'd become a free agent in 2029.
- If the Cubs pass on the three-year club option: Imanaga could opt for a $15.25 million player option for 2026. Should both sides agree, they'd revisit similar choices post-2026, where the Cubs would offer a two-year, $42.5 million club option ($24.25 million in 2027 and $18.25 million in 2028), and he'd have another $15.25 million player option.
- If both the Cubs and Imanaga reject those options: He'd qualify for a one-year qualifying offer for 2026. The exact value isn't set yet, but it's anticipated to exceed $22 million. Declining it would make him a free agent, potentially costing the Cubs draft pick compensation if he signs with another team.
- Key factors the Cubs must evaluate
Imanaga burst onto the scene as a rookie sensation after joining the Cubs two winters ago. He nearly made the NL All-Star team, contributed to a combined no-hitter against the Pirates, placed fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and even garnered some Cy Young votes despite being a newcomer.
In his first 42 appearances in the majors – encompassing his full rookie season (29 starts) and the early part of the following year (13 starts) – he maintained a stellar 2.75 ERA, boasting a 5.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 248 1/3 innings. While he did surrender some home runs (1.4 per nine innings), he kept overall damage in check by minimizing hits and walks allowed. For those new to baseball stats, ERA (Earned Run Average) measures how many runs a pitcher allows per nine innings on average, with lower being better – think of it as a scorecard for pitching efficiency.
However, his final 12 starts in the 2025 season proved challenging, ending with a 5.17 ERA and a concerning 2.6 home runs per nine innings (20 total in 69 2/3 innings). Some speculate that a left hamstring strain, which sidelined him for nearly two months, disrupted his pitching mechanics, though he rebounded strongly with a 1.78 ERA in his first five games back.
Despite the rough patch, Imanaga has achieved a 120 ERA+ over his two MLB seasons, indicating he's performed 20% better than the league average. Among the 65 pitchers with 50 or more starts from 2024-2025, he ranks 12th in ERA (3.28), behind standouts like Framber Valdez, Logan Webb, and Nick Pivetta. His 5.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio places him seventh in that group, edged out only by elite arms like Tarik Skubal, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert, and Joe Ryan. ERA+ is a handy tool for comparing pitchers across eras or parks, normalizing their performance – a 120 means he's consistently above par.
Hoyer has emphasized that bolstering the starting rotation and depth is a top priority this offseason. With Imanaga contributing, it makes sense to retain him; removing his innings and skills from the mix could weaken the team. Realistically, he'll likely return for at least 2026, one way or another.
Considering the high costs of acquiring starting pitchers via free agency, picking up his three-year option seems like a smart, cost-effective move. Sure, he'll turn 32 next season, but just look at the Cubs' own roster for a comparison. Last winter, Matthew Boyd, fresh off his age-33 season and limited to 11 starts in 2024 after Tommy John surgery, secured a two-year, $29 million deal from Chicago. The 2024 free-agent market for starters was a frenzy, with many top talents commanding huge contracts – examples include deals for pitchers like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, who fetched north of $20 million annually. In a sport where injuries and performance dips are common, locking in a reliable arm like Imanaga at a reasonable rate feels prudent.
The least probable scenario is Imanaga choosing the $15.25 million option for 2026. If the Cubs skip the three-year deal, it might make more sense for him to pursue the qualifying offer, which could yield a bigger paycheck with Chicago or open doors to free agency, surpassing the $30.5 million still guaranteed in his original contract.
And this is the part most people miss – or rather, the point that ignites heated debates among fans and analysts: Is Imanaga truly worth a long-term commitment, given his recent homer issues, or should the Cubs bet on emerging young talent and market volatility to fill the void? Some argue his age and the Cubs' history of rebuilding suggest caution, while others see his overall production as a steal. What do you think – should the Cubs exercise that three-year option to secure stability, or play the free-agency game for potentially bigger names? Do you agree with prioritizing proven veterans over high-risk, high-reward acquisitions? Share your opinions in the comments below; we'd love to hear your take on this Cubs conundrum!
