The Arizona Diamondbacks have made a move that feels both comforting and controversial: bringing Merrill Kelly back to the desert. But here's where it gets intriguing—this isn't just a feel-good story about a fan favorite returning home. Kelly’s two-year, $40 million deal raises questions about the team’s strategy, their financial flexibility, and their true ambitions for the upcoming season. Let’s break it down.
Kelly’s return was hardly a shock. The pitcher and his family are deeply rooted in Arizona, and this contract ensures they’ll stay put, potentially until the end of his career. At 39, Kelly will hit free agency again in 2027, but for now, he’s secured a well-deserved payday—earning more in these two years than he has throughout his entire major-league career, which began in 2019. It’s a win for both sides, but here’s the part most people miss: does this signing signal the end of the Diamondbacks’ pursuit of starting pitching?
On paper, the rotation looks solid for Opening Day: Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, and the newly signed Michael Soroka. With Corbin Burnes expected to return mid-season, that’s six starters. But here’s the catch: the drop-off in talent and experience after these six is steep. Sure, the Diamondbacks acquired Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt from the Rangers in the Kelly trade, but they have just 34 innings pitched above Double-A between them. And José Urquidy, another recent signing, hasn’t been effective in the majors since 2022. So, while the rotation might look complete, it’s far from bulletproof.
And this is where it gets controversial: should the Diamondbacks still be in the market for another starter? Adding one would likely push Soroka to the bullpen, which feels like a waste of his $7.5 million salary. Yet, history tells us that the five-man rotation we see on Opening Day rarely stays intact. Last season, Arizona turned to a sixth starter on May 5—later than usual. So, is relying on this group a gamble they’re willing to take?
Kelly’s signing also complicates the Ketel Marte trade rumors. While it’s unlikely Marte will be dealt for a high-leverage reliever—arguably the team’s biggest need—the financial implications of Kelly’s contract can’t be ignored. Payroll expert Jack noted that the Diamondbacks have only $20-$30 million left to spend after signing Soroka, and Kelly’s deal could eat up most of that. Here’s the bold question: are the Diamondbacks prioritizing stability over splashy moves, or are they setting themselves up for another mediocre season?
The bullpen, which ranked 27th in ERA and 28th in fWAR last season, remains a glaring weakness. While GM Mike Hazen could target lower-tier relievers—a strategy that worked with Shelby Miller—it’s hard to ignore the lack of significant action on this front. But here’s the real debate: is beefing up the bullpen enough to turn the Diamondbacks into contenders, or do they need a bolder move, like trading Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy for a proven arm?
As for the rotation, even with Kelly back, it’s hard to be overly optimistic. Last year’s group finished 19th in ERA and 21st in fWAR. While Nelson and Burnes could replicate their 2023 success, Soroka replacing Zac Gallen feels like a lateral move at best. The real hope lies in Pfaadt and Rodriguez improving, but here’s the harsh reality: that’s a big ask.
So, where does this leave the Diamondbacks? With a rotation that’s likely to be mediocre again and a bullpen that’s crying out for upgrades. Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo are on thin ice if the team finishes below .500 once more. But here’s the final thought: is this a team building for the future, or just treading water? Let us know what you think in the comments—are the Diamondbacks on the right track, or is this another missed opportunity?
